riskandforecast

Election

Political Forecast  20/07/10

IMF Casts Doubt on Hungary’s Fiscal Strategy

Although Hungary currently has no urgent need for outside financing, the IMF loan served as a safety net should the country find itself in a tight spot....
In-depth analysis  06/07/10

How Medicine May Break The Bank

In 2010, Hungary’s governing Fidesz party raised expectations for healthcare that are going to be hard to meet. If Fidesz fails to live up to them, an opportunity may open for the extreme right....
 
Poland  05/07/10

Komorowski Takes Polish Presidency, but Kaczyński Poised for Comeback

Polish voters have picked Bronisław Komorowski of the governing Civic Platform (PO) party to be their president for the next five years....
Poland  21/06/10

Presidential Election in Poland

Acting President Bronisław Komorowski of the governing Civic Platform (PO) party won the first round of Poland's presidential election on June 20, but failed to win the 50% required to avoid a runoff....
 
Slovakia  21/06/10

Slovakia: Political shift, but no U-turn

It is too early to talk about an anti-populist, market-friendly U-turn in Slovakia. The governing parties won 44.2 percent of the vote together, just 5.5 per cent less than in 2006....
Slovakia  15/06/10

The Winner Loses All - The Consequences of the Slovak Elections

The next government will probably be formed by four center-right parties: The SDKÚ, the KDH, the SaS and Híd-Most. However, the coalition will be fragile and its majority will be paper-thin. ...
 
Czech Republic  02/06/10

Major lessons of elections in the Czech Republic

While the formation of a minority government cannot be ruled out, a three-party right-wing coalition led by Petr Nečas is a more likely scenario....
Hungary  01/06/10

Conflicts with the Central Bank and the northern neighbour

As the new government will have little room for boosting the budget deficit, its economic policy will not represent a sharp turn from that pursued by the Bajnai-cabinet....
 
Hungary  28/05/10

Dual citizenship poses risks only in Slovak and Hungarian relations

In respect to the stability of the region as a whole political risks will not increase significantly due to the preferential naturalization of ethnic Hungarians living outside state borders. ...
Bulgaria  19/05/10

Bulgaria Derailed from the Fast Track to the Eurozone

The Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) government continues to be stable despite persistent economic troubles and a drop in popularity....
 
Greece  06/05/10

Greece: On the Road to “Symmetric Radicalization”

Hostility toward international financial institutions skyrocketed in Greece after its government agreed to austerity measures in return for economic assistance from the IMF and the EU....
Hungary  28/04/10

Fidesz vs. Hungarian National Bank: A three-month skirmish or a three-year war?

Hungarian Prime Minister-in-waiting Viktor Orbán, whose Fidesz party won an unprecedented 68% of seats in Parliament, urgently wants to replace Hungarian central bank Governor András Simor....
 
Hungary  26/04/10

Hungary will have its Strongest Government since the Transition

With 68% of the seats in Parliament, Hungarian Prime Minister-in-waiting Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party will be able to form the most stable government Hungary has had since the transition....
Hungary  26/04/10

An economic house divided

Fidesz, the party that scored an unassailable majority Hungary’s parliament this month, may discover that it has pitched its tent too wide....
 
Kuwait  19/04/10

Kuwait expels Egyptian expatriates for supporting El Baradei

Kuwait has expelled Egyptian expatriates for voicing support for Mohammed El Baradei to stand for president of Egypt....
Hungary  15/04/10

Hungarian Elections: A Success for Non-parliamentary Parties

Four parties reached the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation in the first round of Hungary’s general election on April 11. Two of them had never made it into Parliament before: The far-right...
 
Hungary  12/04/10

Fidesz is Very Close to a Two-Thirds Majority in Parliament

Results from the first round of Hungary’s general elections on April 11 have made it clear that Fidesz will have an absolute majority in the next Parliament....
Hungary  11/04/10

Jobbik Scores Big in Hungary’s Parliamentary Election: Now what?

The ultra right-wing Jobbik party’s successful performance in the first round of Hungary’s general election may come as a shock, but it is no surprise....
 
Czech Republic  06/04/10

Czech politicians run a dirty election campaign that shies away from issues

The Czech Republic’s election race is wide open. A number of new political formations may enter Parliament or even join the government....
Poland  06/04/10

Civic Platform Taps Komorowski as its Presidential Candidate

Bronisław Komorowski won the governing Civic Platform’s presidential primary, enabling the party to focus its energy on the presidential campaign....
 
 

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In the media

Criticism of 'xenophobic' Hungary mounts after border clashes (September 17)

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Hungary's Orban plays for high stakes with tough stance on migrants (September 8)

Ungarns Flüchtlingschaos: Willkommenskultur à la Guantanamo (September 7)

VISEGRAD: Orban's cynical game may yet backfire (September 7)

Unabashed Viktor Orban stands firm on migrants (September 4)

Hungary’s prime minister becomes Europe’s Donald Trump (September 4)

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RTL Nieuws - 19:30 uur (September 2)

Węgry.Ekspert: rząd zabiega o korzyści polityczne w związku z imigracją (September 2)



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