riskandforecast

Political Forecast

Political Forecast  09/12/09

Privatization is in sight to mitigate the budget shortfall in Slovenia

Many economic analysts say Slovenia will not be able to avoid a new wave of privatization.Some assert that the government is already drawing up a list of companies in which to divest....
Political Forecast  09/12/09

Going into debt seems unavoidable for the Montenegrin government

Montenegro’s 2010 budget foresees an ever-narrowing range of financial resources as the crisis grinds on. The state will probably be forced to go into debt in order to keep fiscal equilibrium....
 
Political Forecast  08/12/09

2010 Budget Passed in Hungary

The smooth passage of the 2010 budget marks the beginning of the end for the Bajnai cabinet. The budget was the government’s last major hurdle....
Political Forecast  23/11/09

2010 Budget Passed in Bulgaria

The new government has passed its first major political hurdle, as Parliament passed the 2010 Budget by a safe margin. In addition, GERB made a clean sweep in this month’s mayoral by-elections....
 
Political Forecast  13/11/09

Slovenian governments come and go, border issue remains?

Like it, or not, the careers of Slovenian and Croatian prime ministers will be largely defined by the settlement of the border dispute, a goal that had eluded their predecessors since 1991....
Bulgaria  09/11/09

Draft 2010 Budget Approved by the Bulgarian Government

The Bulgarian government approved the 2010 draft budget which contains tough needed austerity measures. It now faces two readings in Parliament, but its passage is likely....
 
Political Forecast  03/11/09

The government has stabilized the political and economic situation in Serbia

Serbian parliamentary leaders are able to suppress internal coalition disagreements, but a cabinet reshuffle cannot be ruled out. Ministers of the G17+ could be replaced by more loyal politicians....
Political Forecast  02/11/09

Political meddling - backroom agreement over commercial radio stations

The cancellation of the operating licenses of two commercial radio stations and granting these to new operators affiliated with MSZP and Fidesz represents gross and blatant interference in the media....
 
Kosovo  22/10/09

Stable Macedonian Government, but Clashes over an Encyclopaedia

The Macedonian Government and the economy remains stable, but the Macedonian Encyclopaedia caused stirs in the coalition. There were also positive developments in EU integration and Kosovan matters...
Political Forecast  19/10/09

Conflicts within MSZP consolidate the Hungarian PM's position

The break-up of the Budapest MSZP-SZDSZ coalition will not have a tangible effect on the passage of the 2010 budget, a majority of the SZDSZ faction in Parliament is expected to support the budget....
 
Bulgaria  12/10/09

Passing the budget is the first serious task of the Bulgarian government

The government of Citizen for European Development of Bulgaria is facing the first serious task since it came in power in July – passing the Budget 2010....
Montenegro  07/10/09

Stable Montenegrin Government, worrisome economic trends

The government seems stable now, and the opposition is busy with themselves for now. However, the economic problems are growing continuously, and they could pose serious problems in the near future....
 

Rising Tensions in Bosnia-Herczegovina

Bosnians will be potentially able to enter the EU without a visa starting May 2010, but the domestic troubles over the necessary austerity measures trump the agenda....
Political Forecast  01/10/09

Deteriorating relations between coalition parties in Serbia

The likelihood of early elections in Serbia decreased, but reorganization of the Cvetkovic-government is still on the agenda, as leaders of G17+ are still intend to form a new party....
 
Political Forecast  24/09/09

Passing the budget is the key to success for the Hungarian government

In the coming period, the government’s success depends on the passage of the 2010 budget, fundamentally accepted by international investors, as well as adherence to key 2009 budget figures....
Bulgaria  23/09/09

Bulgarian government: dealing with the forerunners instead of reforms

First forty days of the new rightist Bulgarian Government were concentrated mostly on revealing the mistakes, corruption practices and misuses of the previous government....
 
Political Forecast  11/09/09

2010 budget passage is all but certain in Hungary

In light of key figures the 2010 budget is not going to fall prey to the upcoming election campaign; it is a tough austerity budget proposing to cut spending to the tune of HUF 400 billion....
Albania  07/09/09

Montenegrin Government Faces Internal Conflicts

The EU and NATO integration tracks are still considered a success, but coalition conflicts have begun....
 
Political Forecast  27/08/09

Slovenian-Croatian relations: a new beginning in the old story

The results of the first meeting of the Slovenian and the newly appointed Croatian PMs exceeded the preliminary expectations. It demonstrated, that the two politicians can find the common language....
Bulgaria  27/08/09

The New Bulgarian Government Prepares Cut Back

The new CEDB-led government still enjoys the confidence of 72% of the citizens, but the freshly announced cut backs to curb the budget deficit could erode that support fast....
 
 

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In the media

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Hungary's Orban plays for high stakes with tough stance on migrants (September 8)

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VISEGRAD: Orban's cynical game may yet backfire (September 7)

Unabashed Viktor Orban stands firm on migrants (September 4)

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