riskandforecast

Political Forecast

Kosovo  16/03/09

Internal Feuds in Serbia's Democratic Party (DS)

Although the Democratic Party is stricken by internal feud on several issues, it is still the most popular party, while the opposition parties are locked in battles....
Macedonia (FYROM)  13/03/09

Macedonia Prepares for Local and Presidential Elections

The governing coalition is stable save for a few internal disputes. The conformity to international standards of the upcoming elections will be an benchmark of the country's development....
 
Croatia  09/03/09

No Threats to Government Stability in Slovenia for the Moment

Slovenia continues to remain an economically and politically stable country, but the border dispute with Croatia puts burden on the government...
Political Forecast  05/03/09

Weakening Hungarian PM

Numerous setbacks weakened the PM before the MSZP congress. Fidesz's strategy seems unchanged, regardless of the crisis and the rising far-right....
 
Hungary  06/02/09

Hungarian Government Announced Tax Package to Regain the Offensive

At Parliament’s extraordinary session the PM announced a larger-than-expected HUF 1000 bln tax reform package, well received by economic players. Ferenc Gyurcsány wants to regain the offensive. ...
Political Forecast  13/01/09

Stable PM, Rising Risks in Hungary

Thanks to the passage of the budget and his management of the crisis, Ferenc Gyurcsány’s position has stabilized. However, he faces an active Fidesz and a worsening economy....
 
Hungary  12/12/08

The Crisis Stays in the Center of Hungarian Politics

The economic crisis has the government with little room for maneuvering until the 2010 election. Fidesz seems to have abandoned hopes for an early election and plans on taking over in 2010....
Hungary  25/11/08

Slovak-Hungarian Conflict in the Financial Crisis

The emerged conflict between Hungary and Slovakia is a direct consequence of the financial crisis and could linger for some time, creating both domestic and foreign policy problems for the PM....
 
Bulgaria  19/11/08

Bulgarian Socialist Party: Before Congress

The different groups within the Bulgarian Socialist Party focus on possible partners after the 2009 elections. The party's congress on 22-23 November could cause a rearranging of the forces....
Hungary  11/11/08

Hungary In the Crisis: Union Strikes and Rising Tensions with Slovakia

Atrocities at a soccer match in Dunajská Streda/Slovakia lead to rising tensions with Slovakia. Due to the crisis-mandated austerity measures, unions plan strikes. The IMF granted a rescue package....
 
Bulgaria  04/11/08

Bulgarian Opposition Stays Divided

The so called “EPP format” consisting of CEDB, UDF and DSB appears to be an ineffective form of oppositional cooperation....
Bulgaria  22/10/08

Infighting within the Bulgarian Socialist Party Continues

The main factor of government instability during the past two weeks continues to be the ongoing struggle between lobbies within the Bulgarian Socialist Party. ...
 
Hungary  08/10/08

Resurgent Hungarian Prime Minister, Paralysed MSZP

In the past few weeks Ferenc Gyurcsány’s position has stabilized somewhat. The „spy scandal” will remain the most important political topic in the coming period....
Bulgaria  02/10/08

Infighting Intensifies among Bulgarian Socialists as Congress Approaches

Internal conflict between the circles of Bulgarian Socialist Party has intensified with the National Congress approaching....
 
Bulgaria  15/09/08

Debates over Budget Surplus Spending Plans in Bulgaria

The government starts the new political season in a stable condition. the budget surplus spending plans could trigger internal confrontation as the three ruling parties stated different priorities....
Hungary  04/09/08

Hungarian PM's Fate Hinges on the 2009 Budget

The fate of Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány and the minority government will be determined by the two major issues before Parliament this fall: the tax legislation and the budget....
 
Bulgaria  01/09/08

Easing Pressure on the Bulgarian Government

In August public interest in politics is very low. This eased the political pressure by the opposition, calmed down the public discontent towards the government....
Hungary  18/08/08

In Wait for an Action Plan in Hungary

The government will reveal its action plan for Parliament’s autumn session in late August or early September. SZDSZ will decide on whether or not to support the government after they have seen it....
 
Political Forecast  18/08/08

Temporary Peace due to the Parliamentary Vacation in Bulgaria

The commemoration of the establishment of the socialist party last week seems to have suppressed the internal conflicts. The parliamentary vacation also brought about the political peace....
Bulgaria  01/08/08

Vote of No Confidence not Sucessful in Bulgaria

The cabinet of Sergei Stanishev (BSP) survived the 6th vote of no confidence. The opposition failed because the governing coalition has 150 votes in the 240 seat parliament....
 
 

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