riskandforecast

Political Forecast

Hungary  31/07/08

Hungarian Socialists: Back to Bottom

The rise in MSZP’s approval rating last month proved to be a temporary one, so they face the same problems that they had in the spring. ...
Hungary  16/07/08

Radical Right in the Spotlight after Gay Pride Day in Hungary

Radical demonstrators perturbed the procession on Gay Pride Day, which was condemned by parliamentary parties. Mr. Gyurcsány failed garner support for his “Hungarian Charta” initiative....
 
Bulgaria  16/07/08

Upcoming Vote of no Confidence in Bulgaria not Expected to Succeed

The expected vote of no confidence most certainly will not pass. The majority remains stable and the opposition does not have the needed 121 MPs to depose the government....
Hungary  02/07/08

Gains for the Hungarian Left

Ferenc Gyurcsány’s position as the head of the government and MSZP has improved. SZDSZ has also strengthened, which could make it a possible ally to FIDESZ in seeking early elections....
 
Bulgaria  02/07/08

Bulgarian Socialists Preparing for Congress

The short-term perspective for the Cabinet remains stable. The unity of the parties of the Government will remain firm. Possible destabilizing factor could be the the forthcoming congress of the BSP....
Political Forecast  18/06/08

No Threat to the Government in the Short Term

In a short-term the government will remain stable regardless of the rising discontent. This will be guaranteed mostly by the firm parliamentary majority rather by implementing policies and reforms....
 
Hungary  13/06/08

Hungarian Opposition Courting Economic Actors

Fidesz is consciously courting economic players, preparing for an early election. The presidential election of SZDSZ has failed to produce a stable situation in the party....
Hungary  27/05/08

Shrinking Manouvring Room of Hungarian PM

The political environment is becoming less and less advantageous to the government. Fidesz has started a campaign that is aimed at attacking the government on economic grounds....
 
Hungary  08/05/08

Hungarian PM's Position Stabilized

Ferenc Gyurcsány's position has stabilized for the moment, it can only be maintained if he is successful in garnering parliamentary support for the proposals of the minority government....
Hungary  18/04/08

Instability in Hungary Due to the Results of the Referendum

The new government is not likely to initiate reforms and it will possibly enact popular measures to cater former MSZP voters. Ferenc Gyurcsány's has significantly weakened, but he has no alternative....
 
Hungary  21/03/08

Refrendum a Major Defeat of the Government of Hungary

While the results of the referendum is a big defeat of the government, reshuffle is not expected in the next few months, but policy changes will follow....
Hungary  05/03/08

Hungarian Parties Have Seemingly Moved Beyond the Referendum

Ferenc Gyurcsány tried to undermine the last push of Fidesz by announcing potentially popular initiatives, while Fidesz tries to win voters in the political centre....
 
Hungary  20/02/08

Hungarian Parties Trying to Assess the Referendum in Advance

The parties are trying to present the referendum according to their priorities. Whatever the result, major political shift is not expected in the short term....
Hungary  28/01/08

Referendum Campaign Preparations in Hungary

Parties are preparing their campaign for the referendum on 9 March. The result will alter the strategies of the government and the opposition as well....
 
 

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