riskandforecast

radicalism

Hungary  09/07/09

Chances for Early Elections in Hungary Diminished

With the passage of the tax bill, the chances of early elections in Hungary have diminished. Having implemented almost all components of a short-term crisis management program, it is now in a vacuum....
Saudi Arabia  16/06/09

Saudi Government: Improved Relations with Shiites

The Saudi government has improved it relations with the Shiite population in the southern Najran province by granting land....
 
Yemen  16/06/09

Kidnapping is Still Serious Problem in Yemen

Kidnapping activity shows no signs of decrease in Yemen....
Hungary  14/06/09

Dissolution of the Hungarian Guard may radicalize and mobilize the far right

The dissolution of the Hungarian Guard could be an efficient tool for the law enforcement bodies to fight against extremism in Hungary. ...
 
Hungary  10/06/09

Consequences of the European Parliamentary election in Hungary

Fidesz won the EP election decisively, transforming a rigid party system. Anti-Romaism became a dominant force in politics. Government support became more fragile, with pressure to soften its program....
Political Forecast  03/06/09

Conflicts and Declining Popularity due to Austerity Measures in Serbia

The government's popularity dipped due to austerity measures required by the IMF stand-by agreement. Also, conflicts arose between the coalition parties due plans to cut the number of ministries....
 
Hungary  15/05/09

Huge Opposition Victory in Pécs, Hungary

MSZP suffered a staggering defeat in the mayoral elections of Pécs, and that can be seen as an indicator to the EP elections....
Hungary  29/04/09

New Hungarian PM, New Program

The new Bajnai government's program was well received, but it can alter public opinion for the worse before the European parliamentary elections....
 
Bulgaria  28/04/09

Deepening conflicts in East- and Central-Europe: increasing short-term risks

The governments cannot cooperate with the opposition as it tries to turn the crisis to its own advantage. The crisis deepens existing fault lines that undermine socio-political stability in CEE....
Bahrain  15/04/09

Serious Crisis Between Shiite and Sunni Communities of Bahrain

The royal pardon of Shiite opposition leaders in Bahrain diffuses what could have potentially evolved into the most serious crisis between the Shiite and Sunni communities of Bahrain....
 
Yemen  15/04/09

Further Fights between Government Forces and Houthi Rebels in Yemen

The hostilities in the Sa’ada region between government forces and Houthi rebels further undermines the very shaky truce. Reports of Al Qaeda involvement undermines the government’s authority....
Yemen  10/04/09

Al Qaeda Targets Tourists in Yemen

Al Qaeda are intensifying their attacks in Yemen. It is becoming the government’s main challenge as, unlike other previous threats, it is active all over the country....
 
Hungary  07/04/09

Gordon Bajnai to Become the New Hungarian PM

Last week the chances for an early election considerably diminished, its not in anyone's interest. Gordon Bajnai will most certainly become the new PM....
Hungary  05/03/09

Weakening Hungarian PM

Numerous setbacks weakened the PM before the MSZP congress. Fidesz's strategy seems unchanged, regardless of the crisis and the rising far-right....
 
Hungary  13/02/09

Anti-Roma sentiment is getting out of hand in Hungary

The process that started in the autumn of 2006 with the Olaszliszka lynching seems to be completing its course. Political discourse on the Roma question has swung from one extreme to the other....
Hungary  06/02/09

Hungarian Government Announced Tax Package to Regain the Offensive

At Parliament’s extraordinary session the PM announced a larger-than-expected HUF 1000 bln tax reform package, well received by economic players. Ferenc Gyurcsány wants to regain the offensive. ...
 
Hungary  13/01/09

Stable PM, Rising Risks in Hungary

Thanks to the passage of the budget and his management of the crisis, Ferenc Gyurcsány’s position has stabilized. However, he faces an active Fidesz and a worsening economy....
Risk Warning  12/01/09

The Rise of the Extreme Right in Central-Eastern Europe

In the past two months a number of extreme right were banned by court order in East- and Central-Europe.With a consistent policy, radical rhetoric may lose ground in the medium term....
 
Hungary  12/12/08

The Crisis Stays in the Center of Hungarian Politics

The economic crisis has the government with little room for maneuvering until the 2010 election. Fidesz seems to have abandoned hopes for an early election and plans on taking over in 2010....
Political Forecast  25/11/08

Slovak-Hungarian Conflict in the Financial Crisis

The emerged conflict between Hungary and Slovakia is a direct consequence of the financial crisis and could linger for some time, creating both domestic and foreign policy problems for the PM....
 
 

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Unabashed Viktor Orban stands firm on migrants (September 4)

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