With a little more than a month to go before Hungary holds parliamentary elections, the main opposition party Fidesz continues to enjoy a massive advantage, opinion polls show. With 60% support among decided voters who are sure to turn out, the party has a good chance of reaching a two-thirds majority in Parliament.
A political duel is evolving on two fronts. One one side, the steadily strengthening far-right Jobbik party is closing in on the governing Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) and may beat it into second place. On the other side, the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) and Politics Can Be Different (LMP) are trying to make it across the 5 percent threshold for parliamentary representation. The LMP and the MDF are not only struggling for supporters, but also to collect enough candidate-nomination slips to gain ballot access. While the MSZP and Jobbik are battling for the title of second-place finisher, the real war is between Jobbik and Fidesz, who are trying to win over still-undecided right-wing voters.
Source: Political Capital calculations, data from Medián, Tárki, Forsense and Szonda-Ipsos polling institutes.