Tusk’s position has stabilized, far-right disappeared, the left is still on the floor

 

 

The election – in which only one-fourth of the citizens (24.5%) participated –resulted in a huge victory of the governing Civil Platform with 44.4% and half of the parliamentary seats (25 out of 50). PiS, the former governing party with the leadership of Jaroslaw Kaczynski took 27% and 15 seats with the second best results. The social democrat party (SLD-UP) has got only 12 percent and 7 seats, while The Peasants’ Party, the other coalition party has got 7 percent of the votes, delegating 3 members to the EP. The rest of the parties were unable to send MPs to the parliament. The two coalition parties delegate members to the EPP (European Peoples’ Party) faction, while Kaczinsky’s party will send its members to the new, soft-eurosceptic faction UEN (Union for Europe of the Nations) altogether with the Czech Civic Democratic Party and the Tories.

 

Analysis and forecast (↓ decreasing risk)

 

The election (despite the low turnout) was an important feedback for the governmental parties that their crisis-management policy is regarded to be successful by the voters. Tusk’s cabinet is the most stable coalition in the region at the moment, which, in part, can be explained by the relatively slight effect of the crisis on the Polish economy (in the first quarter of 2009, Poland was the only country which could still produce economic growth – 0.8 percent on a year-on year base – while in the rest of the region the GDP-growth was negative everywhere – see the chart at the analysis on Romania). There is no factor on the horizon which seems to endanger the stability of the government. Moreover, part of the former supporters of Kaczinsky also became the supporters of the Civic Platform, and the far-right in Poland has practically disappeared –and integrated into Pis. In 2004, the christian fundamentalist-anti-Semitic Polish League of Families caught 15% of the votes (and Samoobrona, a populist agrarian party caught 10%) in the EP elections, but now PiS can be regarded as the most radical right-wing force with significant support. The corruption scandals while on government (2007) and the efficient governance of the Tusk cabinet have abolished the social base for the far-right. The left in Poland couldn’t recover from its collapse, still receiving only one-eighth of the ballots of the voters.

 

Results of the parties in the EP election (%)